The ANC’s Cyril Ramaphosa and Paul Mashatile received the highest number of nominations as they head to Nasrec to contest positions of president and deputy. l FILE
A win for Cyril Ramaphosa and Paul Mashatile could be another nail added to the ANC’s coffin as analyst predict a possible break-away party from disgruntled members.
Analysts also painted a picture of a government that played small while the business sector ran the show with the economy lying in the hands of an elite few.
Meanwhile, a Zweli Mkhize-led ANC was characterised as one likely to cause panic among investors.
The analysts said the Radical Economic Transformation (RET) forces would be the ones most likely to abandon the ANC to form a new movement ahead of the 2024 elections.
Ramaphosa is going up against Mkhize in the contest for ANC president at the 55th ANC conference in Nasrec next month. Any other candidate who wants to join the fight would have to be nominated from the floor and secure the support of 25% of those in attendance. The party, this week unveiled the names that would make it to the ballot.
According to the ANC's audited nominations report, unveiled by Kgalema Motlanthe on Tuesday, Ramaphosa is leading with 2 037 nominations, while Mkhize received 916 nominations from branches.
In the race for deputy president, Mashatile received 1 791 nominations, while his opponents, Justice Minister Ronald Lamola and Eastern Cape Premier Oscar Mabuyane, received 427 and 397 nominations, respectively. Incumbent deputy president DD Mabuza is among those who did not make the cut.
In the meantime, analysts have unpacked what the two possible outcomes mean.
Political analyst Protas Madlala said Mkhize’s management of the Covid-19 pandemic during his tenure as health minister meant he was experienced in government and crisis management.
“We all know how the past five years have been with Ramaphosa at the helm but with regards to Mashatile, we don’t know much about him. He has proven to be a hard-working guy who steps up,” Madlala said, referring to Mashatile taking over as acting secretary and deputy acting secretary.
He said Mashatile appeared to be a quiet man who got on with his work.
Madlala said he was aware that Mkhize was a hands-on administrator in government.
“He is very much a crisis management kind of person; it’s a pity that there is the digital vibes scandal. There is a very big question around how the people who control money will receive him,” Madlala said.
Madlala said Ramaphosa’s standing was not a clear-cut scenario, as South Africans had expected him to improve the country’s economic fortunes, but instead, he had done the opposite.
Another analyst, Lukhanyo Vangqa, said both Ramaphosa and Mashatile were against the nationalisation of key aspects of the economy, including the South African Reserve Bank.
“These are people that don’t believe that it is the role of government to create jobs; they believe that it’s the role of the private sector.
“They have placed the fate and control of the economy in the private sector for the next five to 10 years. In the past five years, we have seen regression in terms of transformation; we will see this continue going forward, and it will continue under a Paul Mashatile and Cyril Ramaphosa presidency," Vangqa said.
He added that should Mashatile and Ramaphosa emerge victorious at the conference, it could lead to the ANC losing even more support at the polls.
“They will continue to lose support and regard Nasrec as a real possibility that the RET brigade will break away from the ANC. They will lose even more support as a result.
“They are not going to improve in any way; there is nothing that Paul Mashatile brings to the table that could turn their fortunes around,” Vangqa said.