By Sipho Tshabalala
In a stunning comeback, Donald Trump has reclaimed the White House, toppling every force and every opponent to become the 47th President of the United States. This wasn’t a simple victory; it was a powerful rejection of the Democratic Party’s deep involvement in global conflicts and a decisive blow to the political machinery backing Trump’s opponent. For South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, Trump’s victory could spell disaster, threatening to dismantle the power structure he has carefully cultivated with America’s wealthiest elites.
Under Joe Biden, Ramaphosa had direct access to the heart of American power, thanks to a close alliance with South Africa’s most influential families, including the Menells and the Oppenheimers. Biden’s Chief of Staff, married to Mary Menell, provided a gateway linking the White House to South Africa’s elite. Through these powerful connections, Ramaphosa received backing from families who have poured resources into securing his position and propping up other ANC leaders. Figures like Kgalema Motlanthe and Gwede Mantashe, both high-ranking in the ANC, share long-standing ties with these families, particularly in the mining sector—a relationship that goes back decades and deeply intertwines politics with big business.
But these families are not just passive investors; they are political architects, orchestrating outcomes across southern Africa. From Botswana to Zambia, they have backed candidates and installed loyal allies, securing influence at every level. Ramaphosa’s ascent to the presidency is their crowning achievement, bolstered in no small part by the influence of Democratic power circles. Their influence can be felt in the so-called Government of National Unity (GNU), which DA leader Helen Zille admitted was a structure designed to protect Ramaphosa. Through funding and strategic alliances, they’ve managed to keep Ramaphosa in power while maintaining a tight grip on opposition parties like the DA and Inkatha Freedom Party.
The GNU, far from being a cooperative initiative, has allowed the DA to pull the strings on crucial government decisions, from foreign policy to key ministerial appointments. In one glaring example, a DA-appointed Minister of Home Affairs offered visas to Ukrainians seeking refuge in South Africa, even as Ramaphosa pledged allegiance to Russia on the global stage. This perplexing contradiction only highlights the power play at work: the DA, with backing from the Menells and Oppenheimers, effectively controls Ramaphosa, forcing him to act against his stated policies.
Ramaphosa’s vulnerability doesn’t end there. The DA holds sensitive information regarding the Phala Phala scandal, where millions of US dollars were reportedly stashed at his private farm. Through connections with US authorities and the South African Revenue Service (SARS), the DA has gathered intelligence on the scandal’s intricacies, giving them the leverage to keep Ramaphosa under their control. This loaded political weapon leaves Ramaphosa in an exposed position, allowing the DA to dictate his decisions on key issues, holding his political career hostage.
This alliance is not only about domestic control; it has global implications. To appease Biden’s administration, Ramaphosa even promised to withdraw South Africa from BRICS, a pledge he quietly reversed during his recent meeting with BRICS leaders in Russia. This double-dealing reveals the precarious balancing act Ramaphosa is attempting, caught between satisfying American elites and maintaining his standing in BRICS, a bloc the US views with increasing suspicion.
Ramaphosa’s mixed signals aren’t accidental; they’re part of a strategy designed by South Africa’s business elites to keep the country aligned with Western interests. In a high-profile business delegation to Washington, these families assured US officials that, despite Ramaphosa’s public support for BRICS, they held significant influence over his administration. By tying Ramaphosa to US economic interests, they promised American allies that South Africa wouldn’t stray too far from the Western fold.
But with Trump’s return, this carefully maintained protection is crumbling. Trump’s foreign policy, which promises stronger alliances with Russia and favor towards BRICS, leaves little space for Ramaphosa’s balancing act. With the Menells and Oppenheimers losing their direct line to the White House, Ramaphosa’s dependence on their influence leaves him increasingly exposed to domestic and international threats.
Trump’s close relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin and his positive stance towards BRICS members like the UAE and Saudi Arabia will make Ramaphosa’s situation even more challenging. Unlike Biden, Trump has shown a willingness to cooperate with emerging global powers, putting Ramaphosa in a tight spot: should he align fully with BRICS and risk losing Western support, or continue to play both sides, risking alienation from powerful BRICS allies?
With Biden’s exit, Ramaphosa’s intricate web of alliances is starting to disintegrate. The elite network that once propped up his administration is faltering under Trump’s ascendency. While the Oppenheimers and Menells will likely maintain influence in US business circles, they are unlikely to regain the high-level access they enjoyed under Biden.
For Ramaphosa, Trump’s victory is more than a political shift—it’s a stark revelation of his vulnerabilities. Trump’s return has created a storm that threatens to unravel Ramaphosa’s carefully crafted power structure, exposing him to legal repercussions, emboldened opposition, and potential political rivals. The fallout from Trump’s triumph has only just begun, and for Ramaphosa, escaping the consequences may soon be out of reach.
* Sipho Tshabalala is an independent writer, analyst and political commentator.
** The views expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of IOL or Independent Media.