MEMBERS of social organizations in defence of migrants participate in a demonstration against U.S. President Donald Trump's deportation policy outside the U.S. Embassy in Mexico City, Mexico, on January 20, 2025. Picture: Luis Barron/ Eyepix / NurPhoto / NurPhoto via AFP
Kim Heller
EMBOLDENED by an overwhelming electoral victory on 5 November 2024, Donald Trump’s second coming as US President is likely to be turbocharged. Propelled by a fierce determination to make America Great again, Trump is already hard at work.
He has prophesied and promised a “Golden Age.’ A new dawn of patriotism, protection, and prosperity. At Monday’s inauguration, Trump assured the American people that he would reverse the decline caused by the Biden administration, now that he was back in the driver’s seat. During his inaugural address, Trump declared that he was “saved by God to make America great again.”
Trump is moving with great haste to inscribe his special trademark on American and global politics. The world has shifted markedly since he was President of America during 2017 and 2021. BRICS has grown in scale and stature and the notion of de-dollarisation has gained some currency. China’s geo-economic wingspan has elevated its ranking as a global superpower. In Africa, America has lost considerable traction in many parts of the Continent, as Russia and China boosted their hold, militarily and economically.
He has already signed an executive order which is intended to stop BRICS Nations from forsaking or replacing the dollar as a major currency. This measure is in line with previous warnings that countries which pursue de-dollarisation, will be penalised.
Part of Trump’s redemption strategy for America is a monumental investment in infrastructure and energy. These are essential building blocks in what Trump calls a new “era of confidence” and “pursuit of excellence.”
By strongly boosting local oil and gas production, Trump is not only reducing dependency on other nations but creating a raft of employment opportunities for Americans. This move towards greater self-sufficiency is a very progressive policy and learning for African nations, especially South Africa, which has compromised its energy sovereignty to service other nations.
Trump's decision to withdraw from the Paris Agreement will impact negatively on the winds of climate change. It will add to the environmental challenges and climate funding shortfall of Africa; the dumping ground of the world, economically and environmentally.
The withdrawal from the World Health Organisation (WHO), will also impact Africa negatively given America’s historically sustainable financial contribution. These two decisions could signal that American humanitarian aid to Africa will be reduced. This will be a significant blow for Africa as the lion’s share of its aid is from America. However, the Continent needs to urgently shift away from being a perpetual recipient of foreign aid if it is to be taken seriously as an economic partner and investment destination.
Trump’s foreign policy will be directed by his eagle-eyed focus on the well-being and interests of America. Not other nations or Continents. For President Donald Trump, it is less about sidelining Africa, as some analysts have suggested, and more about centring and advancing American interests. For Africa to reap benefits from the Trump administration, it will need to demonstrate clearly and unequivocally how Africa-American relations will boost and bolster America. This will require unity of purpose around a highly tempting, irresistible proposition to America. It will also require an unequivocal expression of confidence in the Continent from African leaders themselves.
A red flag for Trump, which may heighten relations with Africa, is the increasingly large and comfortable footing of Russia and China on the Continent. The new American President may want to challenge this geopolitical matrix and sphere of influence. In 2023, trade between China and Africa amounted to $282.1 billion, far more than the $74.5 billion between America and Africa.
The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) is likely to be renewed in 2025, despite Trump’s previous threat of possible cancellation. The trade pact benefits America as much if not more than it benefits Africa. Gracelin Baskaran, from the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), recently wrote that the impact of a loss of AGOA on South African exports and gross domestic product (GDP) would be small. Baskaran argues that if AGOA is not continued, America will be negatively impacted due to its strong reliance on South Africa for chromium, manganese, titanium, and platinum.
For Trump, the ultimate entrepreneur, it is more about opportunities than transactions. The Trump administration is unlikely to pull back investment on the Lobito Corridor, (which has already cost America over $22bn). The corridor, which crosses through Angola, the DRC and Zambia, provides prized economic and geo-strategic advantages for America.
Trump will likely focus on select African countries, rather than adopting a broader Continental economic or military thrust. Kenya could find itself as the favoured child, especially given America’s strained relationship with South Africa, due to South Africa’s stance on Palestine and close links with Russia. Somaliland could also serve as a friendly portal for America, given its proximity to the Red Sea and unique geo-strategic value. America is almost certain to seek a new ally in the Sahel region, for military surveillance of terrorism in the region. In 2024, its troops were forced to leave Niger and Chad.
For Trump the world is America. For many African leaders, America is the epicentre of their universe, not Africa. It is this mentality that will see an African President rejoice in red-carpet White House salutations while there are bloody protests in the streets of his own country.
For as long as African leaders fail to guard their countries as fearlessly and fiercely as Trump does America, the Continent will continue to be a pit of poverty. The begging bowl demeanour of many African leaders and dependence on foreign aid feeds poverty, not prosperity.
The outsourcing of peace and security matters to foreign nations will never silence the guns. Without an Africa First approach, the treasure trove of Africa will forever be the spoils of foreign nations, rather than the sustenance of the people of the African Continent. Africa’s redemption strategy is for African leaders to put the Continent first. For the people, first and foremost.
* Kim Heller is a political analyst and author of No White Lies: Black Politics and White Power in South Africa.
** The views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of The African.