SA could go to stage 10 load shedding. Picture: Itumeleng English
CAPE TOWN - If Eskom attempted to meet Minimum Emission Standards (MES) regulations at its power stations, it would plunge the country into stage 10 load shedding.
This is the dilemma currently facing government, according to UP expert David Walwyn of the Graduate School of Technology management.
He said this as the Department of Forestry, Fisheries and Environment (DFFE) issued its decisions on Eskom’s application for postponements in the implementation of air quality compliance timelines for 16 power stations.
All Eskom’s coal and liquid fuel-fired power stations must meet the MES regulations in terms of the National Environmental Management: Air Quality Act, 2004.
DFFE rejected postponement applications for five stations – Matla, Duvha, Matimba, Medupi and Lethabo.
Applications for Majuba, Tutuka, Kendal, and Kriel stations were partially granted.
Eskom received positive postponement decisions for Grootvlei, Arnot, Hendrina, Camden, Komati, Acacia and Port Rex.
These coal-fired power stations are scheduled to shut down by 2030 with Komati being the first to shut down its last unit in September 2022 and Hendrina before 2025.
Acacia and Port Rex reach their 50-year lifespan in 2026/7.
Eskom said it was engaging with the DFFE, the Department of Public Enterprises, the Department of Minerals and Energy and others in respect of the way forward, as it believed the decisions would have a significant impact on its ability to provide electricity.
“If implemented, the decision will result in an immediate shutting down of 16 000MW of installed coal-fired capacity.
“The cost of full compliance to the MES is estimated at over R300 billion and will not add any additional capacity to the national grid. If funding were available, and if it were possible to execute all the compliance projects in time to meet the requirements, these projects would add at least 10% to the existing electricity tariff,” Eskom said.
Walwyn said the decision on Matla, Duvha, Matimba, Medupi and Lethabo stations would have severe implications.
“Not only is (Eskom) unable to maintain its fleet of coal-based power stations, it also cannot operate these stations without meeting the minimum emissions standards.
“Eskom will be unable to retrofit any of these stations in order to meet the emissions requirements without significant and unaffordable capital expenditure on flue gas desulphurisation and other technologies.
”Premature closure of the stations will remove 10GW of real power from the generation side.
“This would force the country into perpetual Stage 10 load shedding.”
He said the DFFE decisions would most certainly precipitate a cabinet discussion and decision on whether Eskom would receive further leniency and postponement of its compliance timeframe. “The most likely outcome is that such a postponement will be granted, a decision which will likely result in court action from environmental groups, brought on behalf of the residents within Eskom’s pollution cloud, whose health is negatively affected by the high levels of pollutants.”
“Government is clearly between a rock and a hard place. “It must now find some way to manage the conflict of interest between keeping Eskom alive and protecting the environment.”
Cape Times
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