South Africa's economic outlook is increasingly promising, according to Goolam Ballim, the chief economist and head of research at the Standard Bank Group. File photo
South Africa's economic outlook is increasingly promising, according to Goolam Ballim, the chief economist and head of research at the Standard Bank Group.
Speaking at the Trade and Investment Seminar, part of the Atlanta Phambili initiative, Ballim highlighted key sectoral reforms and macroeconomic efforts that signal a turning point for the country.
“South Africa stands at the cusp of a transformative economic resurgence, supported by significant reforms across key sectors,” Ballim noted.
The energy sector, a long-standing obstacle to growth, is showing signs of recovery. Load-shedding, which has hampered productivity and investor confidence, is beginning to ease.
“By the close of 2024 and into 2025, we anticipate entering an era where electricity shortages are largely behind us,” Ballim said. This improvement could inject approximately two percentage points into South Africa's potential gross domestic product (GDP) growth.
He credited deliberate policies, including the unbundling of Eskom and accelerated renewable energy initiatives, for creating a more diversified and resilient power grid. “The turnaround in energy stability underscores an essential truth: reliable infrastructure is the backbone of economic expansion,” he noted.
Similarly, Transnet, which Ballim described as “a symbol of South Africa’s industrial potential,” is showing early signs of revival after years of operational decline. Recent data indicates an increase in rail freight volumes, marking the beginning of its rehabilitation. Over the medium term, improved logistics could contribute an additional 0.7 percentage points to GDP growth. “These gains are critical to ensuring South Africa reclaims its status as a continental trade hub, enhancing connectivity and reducing business costs,” he said.
The tourism sector, buoyed by visa reforms and marketing efforts, is enjoying a renaissance. “Tourism does more than fill hotel rooms; it supports small businesses, creates jobs, and inspires a spirit of possibility,” Ballim said. South Africa's safaris, scenic landscapes and cultural attractions are once again drawing global travellers, strengthening the country’s brand on the world stage.
Efforts to consolidate public debt by 2025–2026 reflect the government’s commitment to fiscal prudence and accountability. “This is a broader narrative of restoring confidence among domestic and international investors,” Ballim said.
Agriculture is another bright spot, with growth potential driven by expanded export markets. South African wine, citrus and macadamia nuts are globally celebrated and diversification efforts are gaining momentum.
The digital economy is also thriving, with high-speed internet roll-outs and investments in tech hubs fostering a fertile environment for start-ups and digital entrepreneurs. South African fintech firms are gaining global recognition for their innovative solutions in mobile payments, lending and financial inclusion.
“The Fourth Industrial Revolution offers South Africa a chance to leapfrog traditional economic barriers,” Ballim noted, citing artificial intelligence, blockchain and renewable technologies as catalysts for transformation.
“These mushrooming possibilities reflect a broader ethos of adaptability and innovation,” he said. “Even in a climate of uncertainty, opportunities can germinate, grow, and thrive. The key is to nurture and scale these opportunities, creating ripples that contribute to broader economic recovery.”
Despite these advancements, South Africa faces enduring challenges, particularly in addressing socio-economic fractures. High crime rates remain a pressing concern. “This is not a short-term fix. It requires a generational effort, encompassing comprehensive law enforcement reform, community engagement, and systemic overhaul,” Ballim said.
He expressed cautious optimism about new leadership in the Ministry of Police but acknowledged the long road ahead. Similarly, rebuilding the public sector requires not just financial investment but a cultural shift toward transparency, meritocracy and accountability.
Externally, South Africa faces global challenges, including geopolitical fragmentation and technological shifts. “For a nation as open to global trade as South Africa, navigating this fragmented landscape will require deft diplomacy and agile policymaking,” Ballim said.
Amid these hurdles lies an opportunity for South Africa to assert itself as a bridge between the Global North and the Global South. “This moment is generational,” Ballim said. “It demands leadership, vision, and the ability to inspire confidence.”
It was important to consolidate recent gains while addressing persistent shortcomings. “South Africa is uniquely positioned to rise above past missteps and forge a future aligned with its immense potential,” Ballim said.
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